Figure 1.--. |
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No one knows with any certainty what was Stalin's thinking. Hitler's thinking seems more clearly apparent and his options more limited. It seems to us that that from Stalin's point of view that the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact was a great success. Where he wanted to go after the War began and the German success in the West (which he helped with) is an open question. We believe that he was shocked with the German success. A range of authors suggest a range of options that were available to him, ranging from expanded cooperation to full out war. Some believe he was preparing an invasion. We see no evidence of this. And Stalin appears to have been convinced that Hitler would never attack as long as Britain still continued the War. He was aware that Hitler had over and over again maintained that the Kaiser's great mistake in World War I was waging a two-front war. There were many alternatives available to Stalin. Hitler appear to have already made up his mind. Stalin had a range op options as he was convinced that a German attack was not eminent.
Hitler's thinking seems more clearly apparent and his options more limited. There was no turning back from the War, especially after the Blitz on Britain. The British realized after Hitler violated the Munich agreement and invaded what was left of Czechoslovakia that there was no way that Hitler could be dealt with diplomatically. Nothing he said could be trusted. Especially disturbing is his personal assurance to Prime-Minister Chamberlain that he 'wanted no Czechs'. By seizing Czechoslovakia, it was clear that his goals went far beyond seizing territory occupied by ethnic Germans. And the fact that the United States wrote Britain a blank check mean that Hitler had no way of defeating Britain which was blockading German ports and cutting Germany off from all the resources it desperately needed. And it meant that Germany was lodged between two dangers forces, the Soviets in the East and the Anglo-Americans in the West. His options were limited. The Western Allies in the West were not going to make peace. The Soviets in the East could cut off shipments of oil and needed supplies any time they wanted. In between was German which had few natural resources of its own other than coal and was not self sufficient in food production. A CIH contributor writes, " I am of the opinion that Hitler knew that the odds against conquering Russia were against him but that he felt Stalin would inevitably attack and his comparative military strength would never be better than it was in June of ’41, so Hitler’s choice was either to attack now with some chance of winning or wait until the next year when the odds against him would be far worse. For months prior to Barbarossa, Hitler had been telling his Generals: “You have only to kick in the front door and the whole rotten structure will collapse.” So, in my view, Hitler was playing the odds that the Soviet Union would collapse." We believe that Hitler had convinced himself, as he told intimates that the Soviet Union will collapse like a 'house of cards'. But is absolutely accurate that the odds favored the Wehrmacht in 1941 more than ever before The Soviets were increasing their military and America was rearming. His chances would never be better. It had to be in 1941 or never.
No one knows with any certainty what Stalin's thinking was. It seems to us that that from Stalin's point of view that the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact was a great success, benefiting both the Soviet Union and Germany. Where he wanted to go after the War began and the German success in the West (which he helped with) is an open question. We believe that he was shocked with the German success. A range of authors suggest a range of options that were available to him, ranging from expanded cooperation to all-out war. Some believe he was preparing an invasion. We see no evidence of this. And Stalin appears to have been convinced that Hitler would never attack as long as Britain still continued the War. He was aware that Hitler had over and over again maintained that the Kaiser's great mistake in World War I was waging a two-front war. There were many alternatives available to Stalin. Hitler appears to have already made up his mind. Stalin had a range of options as he was convinced that a German attack was not eminent. And unlike Hitler had not cut his bridges with the Allies. This was fascinating because he conducted brutal invasions like Hitler and terrible NKVD atrocities, but did not attack Britain and France directly.
A CIH contributor sketches this out, "In the spring of 1941, Stalin could have been of the opinion that he needed peace for another year. Thus, your suggestion that he was really afraid of Hitler might have been true for the time being, - he didn’t want to start a fight right now. I would put this at the highest probability. The best evidence for this is that Stalin has been widely quoted as telling graduating cadets finishing military school that war with Germany is inevitable - June of ’42 at the latest. (The authenticity of this quote is not universally accepted.}" [Alexander] CIH believes this was largely correct. The Soviets provided vast quantities of oil and strategic materials to the Germans, making their victory in the West possible. We believe Stalin was shocked. He had anticipated a long drawn-out struggle, weakening both the Allies and Germans creating conditions for an eventual Soviet victory. Instead he now faced the Germans without a powerful French Army at their back. Our CIH contributor yells us, "My best appraisal of Stalin’s thinking is that he was waiting for ’42 and he realized Hitler would be crazy to attack the Soviet Union. You are not going to find me arguing that Hitler wasn’t crazy."
A CIH contributor sketches this out, " Stalin may have thought that he needed peace for a few more weeks. Thus, he was hoping to kid Hitler along until the finishing touches were ready on his deployment. If you buy Suvorov’s argument, this would be more likely. I would estimate this as considerably less probable than waiting for 1942." [Alexander] CIH does not think this was an option Stalin had elected. If so, he would not have allowed Luftwaffe aerial photo reconnaissance. And he would not have concentrated is armor in the Ukraine. He would have concentrated Soviet armor in Poland, aimed at Berlin.
A CIH contributor sketches this out, "Stalin could have thought he had all the time in the world. A good argument can be made that he felt Hitler would be crazy to attack the Soviet Union. Stalin had double the population, a far larger industrial base, immense geographic size and vastly more in the way of natural resources including the lifeblood of mechanized warfare -- oil. This is actually a fairly reasonable belief for Stalin to have had. France and the Ukraine are roughly the same size. Although neither knew it at the time, if Hitler could have repeated his successes of 1941, in each of ’42 and ’43, he would still only have reached the Urals. The Ural Mountains aren’t that conducive to Blitzkrieg tactics but rather throughout World War II, mountainous terrain strongly favored the defense. He also knew that Hitler had not made the necessary preparations to fight through a Russian winter- no sheepskin coats and no winter ready lubricants for guns or vehicles." And unlike the Germans an Japanese did not face the potentially hostile Western powers.
Stalin was an old Bolshevik. He was a real believer in Communism. That left him with the idea that Britain and America (the two centers of world capitalism) were the real enemy. And he thought that the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact was so beneficial for the Soviets and the NAZIs that Hitler would want to continue the relationship for future gains to be had. And there were plenty. Stalin wanted to join the Axis. Italy and Japan wanted them in. Hitler did not. With the Soviets the Axis had the balance of world military power. This is not to say that Stalin saw a blissful, peaceful future. It is to say that Stalin benefits in continuing to cooperate or some time. What Stalin did not understand was that Hitler from the very beginning was focused on the East and the destruction of the Slavic people.
Alexander, Bob. Personal commuicatiin (August 7, 2019).
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