Assessing the Comsequences of not Dropping the Atomic Bombs


Figure 1.--Many authors writing about the two atomic bombs America dropped were unecessary because the Japanese were defeated and could no longer resist. Is is true that the Japanese knew that they could not win the War and most officials and commanders understood that they had lost the War. That does, however, not mean that they could no longer resist or were prepared to surrender. The Japanese were defeated on one Pacifix Island after another, but did nor surrender on any of them until the Emperor surrender. Abd this was not just soldiers. On the islands with Japanese civilian popultions (the Marinasa and Okinawa), large mumbers of civilans refused to surrender nd cimmitted suiside. Here a woman leaps to her death from the cliffs along the northern point of Saipan.

Much of the debate on the American dropping of the atomic bombs is conducted by pacifists and ban the bomb people. They generally do not want to consider what would hasve occurred had we not dropped the bomb. It must be remembered that they represented the thinking that nearly resulted in a NAZI World War II victory and oppositin to Soviet tyranny that would have left Eastern Europe locked in the Soviet Empire. And opposition includes those that are critical of America, no matter what the issue. There are, however some thoughful critics. One author argues that the Soviet invasion of Manchuria was more imprtant. [Ham] We believe that this may well be true. And there is the common argument that Japan ws already defeated and thus it was unncessary to use the bombs. [Ham] This is a very different matter. It is absolutely true that the Japanese were defeated. But being defeated and surrendering are two very different thing. It is important to assess what happened in the Pacific when the United states had to invade Japanese occupied territory. This gives us an idea what would have happened had the United States had to invade the Home Islands. This is provides an idea of what would have occurred had America not dropped the two atomic bo,bs. Japan was defeated on one Pacific island after another, but very few soldiers actually surrendered. Even many civilins did not surrender. Many that were taken prisoner were injured so they were no longer capable of resisting. And we are not just taling about soldiers here. On the islands with civilian Japanese populations (Saipan and Okinawa), large numbers of civilians wither committed suiside or were massacered by Japanese soldiers preparing to kill themselves. Hardened marines who thought they had seen it all were horrified. Parents smashed the sculls of their babied against rocks. Mothers jumped from cliffs with children in their arms. Important Japanese military commanders were preparing for national suiside. Some saw it as a 'beautiful' conclusion of their failed War. Most important of all, it gave the Emperor an excuse and the military aay out. The Emperor was an not an absolute dictator. He had to be concerned about assasination by military zealots. The Nagasaki bomb convinced the Emperor, as if more proof was needed, that the military was incopetent. They assured him that the Unitedstates would take months to oroduce a second bomb. And even rational commanders had their honors to consider. How could they explain the disaster they had brouught to Japan and then meekly surrender after their men had fought to their death. The atmomic bomb offered the way out. They could point out that the United States possessed a terible new weapon against which all resistance was impossible. What we don't know is if the United States had included the willingnss to retain the Emperor in post-War Japan if Japan would have surrenered with the two bomings. Some authors beliece that the possibility of the Emperor bung tried as a war criminal actually delayed syrrender. [Ham] This is course possible, but it would have meant the Emperor taking on his military and there is no way of knowing if he would have dared do it, he had never dared do it before. Neither do we know if the military would have accepted it. It is notable that the Japanese military since the 1920s had been ruling by assasination.

One-sided Debate

Much of the debate on the American dropping of the atomic bombs is conducted by pacifists and ban the bomb people. They generally do not want to consider what would have occurred had we not dropped the bomb. It must be remembered that they represented the thinking that nearly resulted in a NAZI World War II victory and oppositin to Soviet tyranny that would have left Eastern Europe locked in the Soviet Empire. And opposition includes those that are critical of America, no matter what the issue.

Alternatives

There are, however some thoughful critics. One author argues that the Soviet invasion of Manchuria was more imprtant. [Ham] We believe that this may well if not the cause, a significan contrinuting fctor. And there is the common argument that Japan ws already defeated and thus it was unncessary to use the bombs. [Ham] This is a very different matter. It is absolutely true that the Japanese were defeated. But being defeated and surrendering are two very different thing.

Invasion

It is important to assess what happened in the Pacific when the United States had to invade Japanese occupied territory. This gives us an idea what would have happened had the United States had to invade the Home Islands. This is provides an idea of what woiuld have occurred had America not dropped the two atomic bombs. Japan was defeated on one Pacific island after another, but very few soldiers actually surrendered. Even many civilins did not surrender. Many that were taken prisoner were injured so they were no longer capable of resisting. And we are not just taling about soldiers here. On the islands with civilian Japanese populations (the Marianas especially Saipan and Okinawa), large numbers of civilians wither committed suiside or were massacered by Japanese soldiers preparing to kill themselves. These are the best indicators of what would have happened had the Unites states invaded the Home Islands. Hardened marines who thought they had seen it all were horrified. Parents smashed the sculls of their babied against rocks. Mothers jumped from cliffs with children in their arms. There were island like Tarawa and Okinawa. There were inhabited islands. The most important were the Duth East Indies (Indonesia) / Borneo, but the United States did not land here. The major in habited islands where the United states liberated as the Philippines. There were also the Solomons and the lrge islnd of New Guinea which were lightly populated.

Military Mindset

Important Japanese military commanders were preparing for national suiside. Some saw it as a 'beautiful' conclusion of their failed War. Most important of all, it gave the Emperor an excuse and the military aay out. The Emperor was an not an absolute dictator. He had to be concerned about assasination by military zealots. The Nagasaki bomb concinced the Emperor, as if more proof was needed, that the military was incopetent. They assured him that the Unitedstates would take months to oroduce a second bomb. And even rational commanders had their honors to consider. How could they explain the disaster they had brouught to Japan and then meekly surrender after their men had fought to their death. The atmomic bomb offered the way out. They could point out that the United States possessed a terible new weapon against which all resistance was impossible.

Retaining the Emperor

What we don't know is if the United States had included the willingnss to retain the Emperor in post-War Japan if Japan would have surrenered with the two bomings. Some authors beliece that the possibility of the Emperor bung tried as a war criminal actually delayed syrrender. [Ham] This is course possible, but it would have meant the Emperor taking on his military and there is no way of knowing if he would have dared do it, he had never dared do it before. Neither do we know if the military would have accepted it. It is notable that the Japanese military since the 1920s had been ruling by assasination.

Sources

Ham, Paul. Hiroshima Nagasaki: The Real Story of the Atomic Bombings and Their Aftermath (2014). This is a well researched book and Ham is right about many of his main points. The principal mistake he makes, however, is conusing defear with a willingness to syrrender. The Japanese wee defeated on one Pacific island after another, but very few soldiers actually surrendered. Large numbes of civilians actually killed their children and thenselves rather thn surendering.







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Created: 1:20 AM 7/21/2015
Last updated: 1:20 AM 7/21/2015