Figure 1.--

Many Democrats were confident that after President Reagan's two terms that they could regain the White House in 1988. Vice-President George Bush was the early favorite for the Republican nomination. He was shicked by a third-place finish in the Iowa caucases (after Bob Senator Dole and Reverend Pat Robertson). Convincing victories in the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries convinced his opponents to withdraw from the race. Bush chose Indiana Senator Dan Quayle of Indiana as his running mate. This proved to be the only issue at the Convention. Many saw Quayle as not only young, but ill prepared on the issues. The Democratic nomination was wide open. Senator Gary Hart was an early favorite for the Democratic nomination, but withdrew as a result of charges concerning sexual improprieties. Many Democrats wanted New York Govenor Mario Cuomo to run, but he refused. Gradually Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis emerged as the front-runner. Jesse Jackson was the only other active candidate by the time of the Convention in Atlanta. Dukakis won handily on the first ballot. He chose Texas Senator Loyd Benson as his running mate in the hope of carrying Texas. After the two conventions and at the start if the campaign, public opinion polls gave Dukakis a substantial lead. Many presidential races are won or lost with the choice of candidates. Historians generally conceded that Dukakis conducted one of the worst campaigns in Americam presidential history. In an effort to demostrate his that he was not weak on national defene, he had himself photographed in a tank. The photograph released made him look rediculous. Bush on the other hand waged on the most effective campaigns, although Democrats charged that he played the race card. At issue were campaign ads the Republicans ran about a convicted murder, Willie Horton. These ads are still a matter of contention, but the issues involved are often not fairly stated by party partisans. There is no doubt that the ads played a role in the reversal of fortunes in the polls. Vice-President Bush emerged victorious in the general election. The Republican victory was overwealming, 426 electoral votes to 112 for the Democrats. The Republicand 42 states. The Democratic states were mostly clustered in the Northeast (New York and Connecticut), Upper Mid-west, and Pacific Northwest. The Republicans won all the battle-ground (swing) states.

Background

Many Democrats were confident that after President Reagan's two terms that they could regain the White House in 1988.

Republican Nomination

George Bush as the sitting vice-president was the early favorite for the Republican nomination. He was shocked by a third-place finish in the Iowa caucases (after Senator Bob Dole and Reverend Pat Robertson). Convincing victories in the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries convinced his opponents to withdraw from the race. Bush chose Indiana Senator Dan Quayle of Indiana as his running mate. This proved to be the only issue at the Convention. Many saw Quayle as not only young, but ill prepared on the issues.

Democratic Nomination

The Democratic nomination was wide open. Senator Gary Hart was an early favorite for the Democratic nomination, but withdrew as a result of charges concerning sexual improprieties. Many Democrats wanted New York Govenor Mario Cuomo to run, but he refused. Gradually Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis emerged as the front-runner. Jesse Jackson was the only other active candidate by the time of the Convention in Atlanta. Dukakis won handily on the first ballot. He chose Texas Senator Loyd Benson as his running mate in the hope of carrying Texas.

Electorate

The New Deal coalition was long gone by 1988. There was solid block of liberal voters loyal to the Demoratic Party. This was ideolgically liberal white voters, Jews, and African American voters as well as some other minorities. There was also a ideological group of conservative voters loyal to the Republican Party. This consisted of businessmen including small businessmen and evangelicals. Neither of these two groups could produce a majority in the Electoral College. For this the candidates had to appeal to the middle. This included both independents and working-class Democrats. Many working-class Democrats were the descendents of the European immigrant groups that came to America in the late-19th and early-20th century. Many were Catholic. Presidents Nixon and Reagan had sucessfully appealed to this group and won. The question in 1988 would be whether Vice-President Bush or Governor Dukakis would be sucessful here. Working-class Democrats were predesposed to vote Democratic which is why Dukakis led in the early polls.

Early Assessments

The early polituical assessments suggested that Govenor Dukakis would achieve a stunning victory. Vice presidents have not fared well in elections to pass on to the presidency. The vice presidents that did so usually did so through the death of the president while in office. Marin Van Buren was the last sitting vive president to win the presidency (1836). The Vice President had an impressive resume, but was not able to project the kind of personal charisma that Reagan was so adept at. Thus he came off as rather weak, even boring. He also did not inspire confidence among the Republican conservative base. Governor Dukakis in contrast seemed like a much stronger candidate. He was credited with the "Massachusetts Miracle," which was billed as a stunning revival of economic conditions in a liberal state which critics has labeled "Tax-achusetts." Public opinion polls after the conventions gave Dukakis a 17 percent point lead over Bush. Many Democrats were sure they would win and began discussing who would get Cabinet appointments in the new Dukakis Administration. House.

Campaign

After the two conventions and at the start if the campaign, public opinion polls gave Dukakis a substantial lead. Many presidential races are won or lost with the choice of candidates. Historians generally conceded that Dukakis conducted one of the worst campaigns in Americam presidential history. The Republicans persued the national defense issue, one which they had pursued with vigor since World war II. In an effort to demonstrate his that he was not weak on national defene, he had himself photographed in a tank. The photograph released made him look rediculous--much more important than any actual positions on defense issues. Bush on the other hand waged on the most effective campaigns. One issue they raised was that Dukakis as governor of Massachusetts had vetoed legislation requiring teachers to lead the Pledge of Allegiance at the beginning of the school day. The Republicans gave special attention to the crime issue. At issue were campaign ads the Republicans ran about a convicted murder, Willie Horton. Democrats charged that Bush and his campaign adisor Lee Atwell played the race card.These ads are still a matter of contention, but the issues involved are often not fairly stated by party partisans. There is no doubt that the Willie Horton ad campaign played a role in the reversal of fortunes in the polls. It proved particularly effective with the working-class Democrats that would decide the election. The precise importance and the appeal to voters is not alltogether clear.

Election Results

The Democrats nominatefd Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis. Bush emerged victorious in the general election. The Republican victory was overwealming, 426 electoral votes to 112 for the Democrats. The Republicand 42 states. The Democratic states were mostly clustered in the Northeast (New York and Connecticut), Upper Mid-west, and Pacific Northwest. The Republicans won all the battle-ground (swing) states. The result was staggering given the lead Govenor Dukakis began with and the overwealming advantage in Democratic registration.

Created: 12:40 AM 5/21/2008
Last updated: 12:40 AM 5/21/2008