Figure 1.--The Japanese militarists that dispatched the First Air Fleet to the Hawaiian Islands knew that they were gambling. The envisioned winning the War in the first year. The ability of American industry, however, to produce aircraft and carriers that would sweep the Imperial Fleet's carriers from the ocean and to build a bomber like the B-29 Superfortress was beyond their comprehension. Boeing submitted the prototype to the Army (1939). Construction began (1943) The seizure of the Marianas provided bases that brought Japan within the range of the B-29s June-July 1944). The militarists were still telling the Japanese people that they were winning the War when the first B-29s reached Japan. Here B-29s from Saipan in the the Marianas are being loaded for some of the early strikes on the Japanese Home Islands (November 1944). It was the most complicated weapon system of the War.

Looking at the Pacific War from the perspective of time, it seems virtual insanity for Japan to have attacked the United States and launch the Pacific War. The Pacific War begun and won in the War. And any assessment of the aviation industries that would provide the planes to wage the War would show the Japanese had an aviation industry with only a fraction of the capability to build aircraft. The United States had the world's largest aviation industry. And this was before the United States significantly expanded its aviation industry after Pearl Harbor. Neither side, however, fully preceived the importance of aviation. Both America and Japan believed that it was naval forces that would decided the outcome of the War. But here the naval construction industries also favored the United States. The Japanese militarists that took the country to war were largely army officers who were aware of this imbalance, although probably not fully aware of the disparity. The decesion they reached was that three other factors that would negate America's significant industrial power. First, that the United States would have to focus most of its military power in Europe to battle the Germans who were about to defeat Soviet Russia. Second, that Japan with its military build up could seize the Southern Resource Zone (SRZ) it coveted before America could shift its industry to armament production. Three, decadent Americans would not have the will to fight a major war and would make peace as Russia had done in 1905.

Japanese Aviation Industry

Americans in the 1930s thought of Japan as a rather backward industrial power. Most Americans bought cheap Japanese toys and China in dime stores. Made in Japan had a very different meaning for Americans at the time than it does today. There was no realization, even in upper echelons of the military that Japan had an advanced aviation industry that could produce high performance military aircraft. Even when Clare Chanaulte's Flying Tigers submitted reports of modern Japanese aircraft they were encountering, these assessments were largely discounted in part because of the low esteme Americans had for Japanese manufacturing. In fact Japan had one of the most advanced aviation industries in the world, heavily financed by the Japanese military. Because of this the Japanese entered World War II with one of the best fightersof the War--especially the Mitsubihi A6M Zero fighter. The Army later received the Nakajima Ki-43 Oskar, another excellent fighter with inovative fatures like butter-fly wings. The Japanese also have effective torpedo planes, dive bombers, and various types of other bombers. The Zero was superior in many characteristics to any fighter in the American arsenal when the Japanese launched the War. The Japanese fighters were light, fast and highly manunervable. It also had a range of 1,150 miles, an important capability on the vast Pacific theater of operations. They had some weakenesses, however, such as light armoring to potect the pilot and the absence of self-sealing fuel tanks. (Given the great effort the Japanese put into pilot training, the failure to protect them was short sighted and proved a great mistake.) The Japanese planes were developed with minimal foreign assistance. The Zero demonstrated the potent capabilities of Japanese aviation industry. The fact that at the time the Japanese surrendered (1945) that it was still their first-line fighter demonstrates the limitations of that industry.

American Aviation Industry

The aviation industry in the United States was a relatively small part of American industrial production before World War II. One source ranks it at only 41st in a list of major industies. The leading industry being the automobile industry. Even so, the American aviation industry was the largest in the world, in part because of demand from the growing demand for passanger aircraft. Europeans had little need for domestic aviation. America with substantial distances between cities did. President Roosevelt's decession to arm America as Europe moved toward war helped to further expand the industry. President Roosevelt gave ariority to air power in American defense planning. One of the results of that program was the Boeing B-17 which was designed to protect America from invasion. It proved ineffective against enemy fleets, but was along with the B-24 the mainstay of the American strategic air campaign against Germany. The British and French reacted slowly to German rearmament. This changed dramatically as Hitler began using the powerful Luftwaffe, first in Spain and then to threten the Czechs and their British and French allies. The British and French unable to restore the inballance in air fleets rapidly through domestic production, began to place orders for military aircraft in the United States (1938). This provided an inportant pre-War stimulus to the American aviation industry. The United States produced 6,000 air planes in 1939. Germany also developed a major aircraft industry as part of its rearmament program. The difference between the two countries is that America had a substantial capacity to increse airplane production. Germany had only a limited capacity to expand production. One reason America was able to expand aircraft production was its vast automotive industry. After America entered te War, a part of the automotive industry was diverted to aircraft production. American aircraft production expanded to an extent never imagined by the Germans and Japanese and to levels that surprised many Americans. And the industry produced many new many advanced aircraft types during the War. As a result the aircraft the U.S. Air Forces were using at the end of the War were different than those at the beginning of the War. This was in sharp contrast to the Axis air forces. Curtiss, Grumman, Lockheed, and North American Aviation focused on fighters. Boeing focused on bombers.

Japanese Calculation

Neither side, however, fully preceived the importance of aviation. Both America and Japan believed that it was naval forces that would decided the outcome of the War. But here the naval construction industries also favored the United States. The Japanese militarists that took the country to war were largely army officers who were aware of this imbalance, although probably not fully aware of the disparity. They decided that Japan could win the Pacific War despite the fact it had a relatively small aviation industry. The decesion they reached was that three other factors that would negate America's significant industrial power. First, that the United States would have to focus most of its military power in Europe to battle the Germans who were about to defeat Soviet Russia. Second, that Japan with its military build up could seize the Southern Resource Zone (SRZ) it coveted before America could shift its industry to armament production. Three, decadent Americans would not have tghe will to fight a major war and would make peace as Russia had done in 1905. The Japanese were partially correct. The United States did devote most of its arms production to Europe, although the Germans did not defeat the Soviet Union. Such was the staggering dimensions of the Japanese error that even though before American industry was fully converted and most of war production was going to Europe, that within a year, American war production had begun to overwealm Japanese industry. Of course the fundamental miscalculation was that the United States would not fight. And the Japanese militarists who chose war could not begin to imagine the air power that American industry would generate.

American Calculation

The United States also miscalculated. It did not launch the War of course, but the American miklitary and civilian planners badly miscalulated Japan's industrial power and its ability to buil modern aircraft and man them with competent pilots. The United Sttes coreectly saw that Japan had a comparatively small aviation industry and could not out produce the United States, but military analysts also believed incorrectly that the Japanese could notvproduce high[performance aircradt. This opinion was widely held and also colored public prceptions. America public opinion was strongly against entering the War in Europe, primarily because of fear of the Germans. Ther was much less public concern about a possible Pacific war bdcause of the perception that Japan did not have a significant war making capability. Those illusions were shattered at Pearl Harbor.

Created: 4:44 AM 8/24/2010
Lst updated: 12:44 AM 4/5/2013