Figure 1.--The Chinese traditionally valued large families and not just rural peasant families. Here we see an urban middle-class family in the 1930s. The children look to be about 2-14 years old. Notice that the girls wear traditional clothing and the two older boys wear Western styles. A reader writes, " The Chinese, especially in coastal cities during the 1930s, would probably have had considerable interaction with Europeans. This of course was especially true of Shanghai, China's commercial center, which still had European enclaves. I suspect that the two older boys wear western clothes because they attend some sort of Western style private school. Notice the younger pre-school boy seems to be wearing more traditional garb. I also think this was a well-to-do if not wealthy family."

China has had the largest population of any country for ages. We are not sure just when that began or why, but this has been the case as far as we can tell for millennia. Geography is an important factor. It isolated China and provided the foundation for productive agriculture--rivers for irrigation and deposit of rich alluvial soil--basically the Nile Valley on a much laser scale. The size and the boundaries of China have changes over the past 5,000 years, but China was first unified by the Qin which defeated the Waring States and unified China (late-3rd century BC ). The Qin were followed by much longer lasting Han Dynasty which presided over a Golden Age and created institutions that helped form the civilization that helped form the Chinese Civilization that we all learned about. And since that time, the Chinese have seen the Mandate of Heaven to both legitimize the rule of an Emperor and his rule over a united Chinese state. Disunity was seen as an natural state of affairs. Unity created a state that had a large population and one that could maintain a productive agriculture economy. . A strong united state was need to main the canals and irrigation works needed for productive agriculture. A major factor here is simple math. Rice produces more calories per acre than wheat--the preferred crop in Europe. More calories meant the ability to support a larger population. Productive agriculture until the 20 century required a large work force because of the agricultural methods employed. And this created a mind set of producing large families. This was because large families meant free labor. It also meant children to support you in your old age. This is not just a Chinese pattern. It is a pattern manifest in all agricultural societies, even in the United States. My father's farm family had 11 children. An American reader writes, "The point about large families makes sense. We see similar styles in rural European and American families, especially in Catholic Countries and enclaves. I even remember certain Catholic families having 8 or more children (Irish and Italian families mostly) when I grew up in the 1960s." But it is especially important concerning China because agriculture was so important and China was so late to industrialize. Here sons were much more important than daughters. They carried on the family name and could b depended on to care for their parents in old age. In contrast, daughters required a expensive dowry when they married and then sent off to another family. These value became deeply embedded in Chinese culture. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) seized power (1949) and when the Communist desire to control, they addressed demographic issues. Chairman Mao believe that China's large population was an assets. He reasoned that a large population would mean that many Chinese would survive a nuclear exchange. China women produced 2.7 children. (2.1 is needed to maintain a constant population.) After Mao, Communist leaders decided the population was out of control and instituted a one child policy (1979). And the CCP was phenomenally successful. A side effect was that millions of girl babies were aborted or euthanized. And by the time the one child policy was ended, the Chinese (especially women) have decided they do not want to have children, especially more than one. The major reason is that it is very expensive to have children. Free labor is no longer needed. Not to mention that children complicate careers. And the Chinese preference for boys means that the demographic balance has been upset. Millions of Chinese men now find that there is no women for them. This has mean that the normal population pattern is totally out of balance. India is now the world's most populace country. The Chinese population is declining. China which has become the workshop of the world is no longer producing the workers needed. and now faces a population collapse. The CCP was able to force Chinese women not to have children. It is now having little success in convincing them to have children.

Geography

China has had the largest population of any country for ages. We are not sure just when that began, but this has been the case as far as we can tell for millennia. Geography is an very important factor. It isolated China and provided the foundation for productive agriculture-. China was one of the great river valley civilizations. China had important rivers for irrigation. Interesting, Chinese rivers like important Indian rivers both rise in the Himalayas. The two countries are on opposite of this towering mountain chain. The rivers also deposit rich alluvial soil. China is basically the Nile Valley on a far greater scale. The two most important quivers of course are the Yellow and Yangtze. There is a third very important, less well river known to Westerners--the Brahmaputra. It arises in the Himalayas and flow into Tibet, but unlike the Yellow and Yangtze, it then turns south and flows into South Asia. As a result, it is becoming a major issue with water-starved China and India/Bangladesh.

Rice-Wheat Caloric Values

A major factor here is simple math. Rice produces more calories per acre than wheat--the preferred crop in Europe. This is a little complicated. The caloric value per pound of rice is comparable to wheat. There are difference in nutritional value, but it is faculty to say that one is superior. The difference is that you can produce more rice per hectare than wheat. And in tropical/subtropical areas you can harvest more than one crop annually. Here there are no precise numbers. It depends on the strain, climate, land, water availability, and farming methods. But in the final analysis, the greater the caloric production, the greater the ability to support a larger population.

Ancient China

The size and the boundaries of China have changed over the past 5,000 years, but China was first unified by the Qin which defeated the Waring States and unified China (late-3rd century BC ). The Qin were followed by much longer lasting Han Dynasty which presided over a Golden Age and created institutions that helped form the civilization that helped form the Chinese Civilization that we all learned about. And since that time, the Chinese have seen the Mandate of Heaven to both legitimize the rule of an Emperor and his rule over a united Chinese state. Disunity was seen as an natural state of affairs. Unity created a state that had a large population and one that could maintain a productive agriculture economy. Economists identify a range of policies that stimulated economic growth such as private commerce, new trade routes, handicraft industries, and a monied economy--all promoted by a strong unified state. 【Nishijima】 An especially important dividend of a unified Chinese state was the ability to build and maintain a massive system of irrigation. A strong united state was need to maintain the canals and irrigation works needed for productive agriculture. Productive agriculture until the 20th century required a large work force because of the agricultural methods employed. And this created a mind set of producing large families. This was because large families meant free labor. It also meant children to support you in your old age. This is not just a Chinese pattern. It is a pattern manifest in all agricultural societies, even in the United States. My father's farm family had 11 children. An American reader writes, "The point about large families makes sense. We see similar styles in rural European and American families, especially in Catholic Countries and enclaves. I even remember certain Catholic families having 8 or more children (Irish and Italian families mostly) when I grew up in the 1960s." But it is especially important concerning China because agriculture was so important and China was so late to industrialize. Here sons were much more important than daughters. They carried on the family name and could be depended on to care for their parents in old age. In contrast, daughters required a dowry when they married and then sent off to another family. These value became deeply embedded in Chinese culture.

Medieval Era

China was the leading force in the world, although still largely isolated from Europe. Many of the factors already in play in the ancient area resulted in China's phenomenal success, mist flowing from the unified Chinese state. There were wars and insurrections, but compare this with the state of perpetual war in the West. Several factors were of importance during the medieval era. Of particular importance was a shift in the population toward the more agriculturally productive south. 【Maddison, 2007.】 Also important was that China did not experience plague catastrophes close to the European pandemics, especially the Black Death which is believed to have wiped out a third of the European population (13th century). The Plague also affected China, but because China was in contact with the disease origins (probably the Steppe) over a long period, there was a degree of biological immunity which had developed in China in contrast to the ore isolated Europeans. Other important factors were relative peace, widespread irrigation, and the development of fast-ripening seeds. This and the shift south of the population allowed the harvesting of two crops a year. 【Maddison, 2006 and 2007】 Contact with the West was very limited, confined largely to the Silk Road. We have Western accounts such as those of Italian merchant Marco Polo. Some authors doubt the authenticity of his accounts, but they can not be dismissed because the descriptions he provided are largely accurate and not fanciful. Clearly China was a very advanced society in medieval terms and major technologies helping to modernize the West originated in from China. Which leads us into a very important historical and sociological question. Why with all China's its advanced technology was it the West that led the world into modernity with democracy, capitalism, and the Industrial Revolution?. It is important to note that throughout the medieval era in both East and West the great bulk of the population in both areas lived in rural areas. And the population was mostly a landless peasantry. Agricultural methods even in China achieved such limited productivity that that a huge portion of the population was need to support even a small urban population. Productivity in the West was even lower.

Modern Era

Advancing maritime technology in the west resulted in rising levels of trade,. At first the obtaining the products of advanced Chinese technologies could make fortunes in the West. Westerners had trouble offering trade goods in which the Chinese had any interest. The resulting China trade was largely financed by silver the Spanish found in the Americas. This involved the famous Manila galleons. A technological explosion in the West gradually changed the terms of trade. Suddenly it was the West that was the most advanced technologically. And the West began to create manufactured goods that could be sold in China. Even so it was still difficult to come up with goods the Chinese wanted. This resulted in the Opium War when Britain and France forced opium on the Chinese. Is at this time the Japanese decided to industrialize. The more traditional-grounded Chinese Imperial regme made no real effort to industrialize. Economists debate why the Chinese failed. One historian focuses on 'political turmoil, weak government financial resources, and the missed opportunity of the Tongzhi Restoration.' 【Perkins】 The political earthquake of the Taiping Rebellion (1850-64) has to have been a major factor. It was the second deadliest war in history, and unlike World Wars I and II--all in one country.) While little studied in the West, it devastated large areas of China. At this time the population in the West because of industrialization changed dramatically with rapid urbanization and declining birth rates. This did not occur in China where the population continued to be mostly a landless peasantry. The Europeans and Japan seized control of most of China's ports -- The Unequal Treaties. Russia and Japan went far beyond seizing treaty ports, they annexed large areas of territory. Russia still holds those areas.

Republic of China (1912-48)

The Republic of China was created (1912). The Imperial regime after millennia finally overthrown. . The Xinhai Revolution ended the Qing (Manchu) Dynasty. Four decades is a very short period, especially when discussing demographics. They were, however, a tumultuous four decades -- in fact some of the most tumultuous decades in Chinese history with tremendous dislocations and loss of life. The period encompassed the Xinhai Revolution (1912), World War I (1914-18) suppression if the warlords (1916-28), the Civil War (1927-49), and the Second Sino-Japanese War (1937-45) which merged into World War II. While the loss of life in some of these conflicts was minor, the Civil War and the Second Sino-Japanese War were major events resulting in the deaths of tens of millions. The Chinese Republic sought to modernize China, especially under the Kuomintang (KMT) which pushed industrialization. And allowed to continue this process might have evolved into what is today's Taiwan, a modern democratic progressive state with European-like demographics. But the shock of the Japanese invasion truncated what progress was being made. The KMT was weakened by not only the barbarity of Japanese invaders, but the famine which beset China after the Japanese seized large areas of China's most productive agricultural land. 【Collingham】 This tarnished the image of the KMT irretrievably, making the Communist victory possible. The demographic impact is difficult to assess. The Republican era was very short. And with a massive population, even the loss of tens of millions while horrific in personal terms was not catastrophic in demographic terms.

People's Republic (1949- )

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) seized power (1949) and when the Communist desire to control, they addressed demographic issues. Chairman Mao believe that China's large population was an asset. He reasoned that a large population would mean that many Chinese would survive a nuclear exchange. China women produced 2.7 children. (2.1 is needed to maintain a constant population.) China's already large population exploded. The Chinese population growth rate under Mao substantially exceeded the world average (1949-70s). The CCP Government promoted aggressive pro-birth policies. Families were incentivized regardless of productivity by the number of workers. Given the gross economic failure and resulting scarcity of food and consumer goods as a result of the CCP's economic policies, parents resounded by having more kids. Seeing that as the only way to impoive their economic well-being. 【Howden and Zhou】 After Mao, a degree of reality set in. CCP leaders decided the population was out of control and instituted a one child policy (1979). And the CCP was phenomenally successful. A side effect was that millions of girl babies were aborted or euthanized. And by the time the one child policy was ended, the Chinese (especially women) have decided they do not want to have children, especially more than one. The major reason is that it is very expensive to have children. Free labor is no longer needed. Not to mention that children complicate careers. And the Chinese preference for boys means that the demographic balance has been upset. Millions of Chinese men now find that there is no women for them. This has mean that the normal population pattern is totally out of balance. India is now the world's most populace country. The Chinese population is declining. China which has become the workshop of the world is no longer producing the workers needed. and now faces a population collapse. The CCP was able to force Chinese women not to have children. It is now having little success in convincing them to have children. The demographic decline is the steepest in recorded history. The consequence cannot be accurately assessed because there is not known event comparable in history. 【Zeihan】India has replaced China as the world's most populace country. The opulation of China is now declining, The Governmnt is having to lay off teachers and close schools because there are so few children.

Sources

Collingham. Lizzie. The Taste of War: World War II and the Battle for Food (2013).

Howden, David and Yang Zhou. "Why did China’s population grow so quickly?" The independent Review Vol. 20, No. 2 (Fall 2015).

Maddison, Angus. Chinese Economic Performance in the Long Run: 960-2030 AD 2nd ed. (Paris: OECD, 2007).

Maddison, Angus. "China in the World economy: 1300-2030." International Journal of Business Vol. 11, No. 3 (2006), pp. 239-54.

Nishijima, Sadao. "The economic and social history of Former Han", in Denis Twitchett, and Michael Loewe, eds., Cambridge History of China: Volume I: The Ch'in and Han Empires, 221 B.C. – A.D. 220 (Cambridge University Press, 1986), pp. 545–607.

Perkins, Dwight H. "Stagnation and growth in China over the Millennium: A comment on Angus Maddison's 'China in the World economy, 1300-2030'," International Journal of Business Vol. 11, No. 3 (2006), pp. 255–64.

Zeihan, Peter. Peter has discussed this in countless You Tube postings.

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